Saturday, February 13, 2010

Bill Gates Is Wrong--As Usual

I wasn't there at TED--full disclosure, I'm a TED dropout.
So I didn't actually hear Bill Gates' talk on climate change and energy.
All I did was read the report of the speech as described on the web. Gates was quoted as saying, "We need energy miracles."
Bill Gates is flat out wrong. (Again. I have a tendency to see Mr. Gates as getting things wrong, starting with much about Microsoft and including his apparent theory of how to create social change. But that's not today's topic.)
The fact is, we don't need energy miracles and calling for miracles gives the wrong impression about how to go about solving our serious energy policy dilemma.
Yes we do need to make big changes in our national energy policy.
But what we need to do is far from miraculous. (Calling for miracles may play to a TED audience that wants to believe in miracles or hyperbole. But that's not today's topic either.)
Start with energy conservation. Jimmy Carter tried to get us headed in that direction more than 30 years ago. He was right then, and the policy is right today. Retrofit old buildings, offer tax credits for energy conserving investments, start installing simple switches and existing thermostats and watch the nation's energy use start to go down.
Then actually invest in mass transit, and not in highway construction. If you want to change our policy of importing oil from our adversaries, then do something about it: instead of sending more money to build more highways, send money to reinforce transit. Build light rail lines; require cities to introduce higher density zoning; where ever and when ever possible favor transit over the car.
Offer tax credits for wind and solar investments. And look for smart, small, innovative energy entrepreneurs who need support to bring their technologies to market.
Take my friend Eddie Sturman, for example. (Go to his web site, www.sturmanindustries.com to find out more) Eddie's mastery of energy and technology earned him high honors from NASA for what he did to help America's space program. Now he has existing technology that will produce huge efficiencies for every type of engine that runs today, from engines that power autos to engines that produce heat and electricity.
But when Eddie applied for federal support to help commercialize his technology, he was stonewalled--the money went to the big automakers. It was more of a jobs expenditure than an alternative energy one.
So there you go, Bill: You want a miracle? I give you Eddie Sturman.
Other than that, the way to a smart, rational, future-focused energy policy is the same way we've known for at least 30 years. Simple, efficient steps that save energy and shift our reliance from non-renewable to renewable fuels. It's not a miracle. It's common sense.

360 comments:

  1. Alan,

    Great post! As a big fan of Rules of Thumb, this post drives home the messages behind Rule 4 (Don't implement solutions, prevent problems) and Rule 38 (If you want to think big, start small).

    I'm sure many readers have done the same thing I have and picked out a few rules as personal mantras and/or areas to focus on for 2010. Rule 4 is one of mine; it's a foundation of both my consulting practice and Business Simplicity blog.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great post, however, the speech is available on the web & iTunes (for free). You didn't need to be at TED to watch it. I wasn't there but spent the 25 or so minutes to watch it so I could understand his position.

    He speaks of a lot more than "miracles" but I also mention this because Bill Gates defines what he means by "energy miracles" and it isn't the godly miracle you'd expect. Computers, internet, etc are considered "miracles" in Bill Gates explanation of what he means. All exist and are attainable. But they were BIG steps in a new direction.

    ReplyDelete
  3. also - how about allow oil companies to drill the oil that is right here in our own country?

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  4. Agree with you and it's especially upsetting that J Carter had this solution 30 yrs ago.
    I live in Seattle and after 3 election ballots, $ are coming to transit. Overcoming lobby dollars is a big hurdle with a distracted public but the very easily implemented changes like dimmers, low flow water devices and such yield big results.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This is a brilliant post Alan.

    We've had years of motivational speeches around these issues.

    As mweb says, Bill Gates is perhaps talking about "miraculous" in the sense that any technology we don't understand appears to be magic/miraculous.

    I think he is spot on calling computers miraculous, but, as you say, changing the environment needs to be demystified with some common sense.

    Great post. Thank you.

    Peter Shallard

    ReplyDelete
  6. I agree Bill's use of the term "miracles" put the answer into the impossible category but yet he is attempting to create the "miracle" and for that I give him credit. Using that term brought forth a sense of urgency and put a sense of scale to the issue. I did not hear him say no one else try to do what they feel is going to help the situation. (I did not go to TED either but his video is available.)

    I am also thankful for people like your friend Eddie who will also change the world for the better. There is room for everyone to do their part big or small, just start now!

    ReplyDelete
  7. You really should watch Gates' video, and then decide if you want to delete your blog post.

    He may have used a word you don't like, but you're really doing everyone a disservice by badmouthing his entire talk, without actually watching it yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  8. what about eating a vegetarian based diet - the impact of the world eating even one veg meal a day would have "miraculous" consequences - then we can really watch the nation's energy usage go down.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks for blogging about the need for SIMPLE STEPS to achieve a rational energy policy. Amen!! Here's one more log for the fire...

    Our company has an ingeniously simple technology (www.rattlerenergy.com) that converts waste heat into energy and saves companies upwards of 40-60% on their power bills.

    Unfortunately, our federal government doesn't consider waste heat a renewable energy source, so it's currently not eligible for green energy incentives and subsidies. So frustrating!!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Mr Webber, I want to acknowledge you for this timely and poignant message. Having moved to Detroit from Chicago five years ago and experiencing the massive employment fallout in this area, I'm still scratching my head wondering when Detroit will stop being a victim to the auto consumer and start employing tens of thousands to build a mass transit infrastructure. It seems that we are losing the battle to familiar but devastating habits.

    -Preston True
    www.prestontrue.com

    ReplyDelete
  11. "full disclosure, I'm a TED dropout." Good for you!! There are myriads of reasons to dropout.. what was yours?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Jennifer Lynn, giving your soul to Jesus would also have "miraculous consequences," so here's an idea: I'll continue to eat what suits my needs.

    ReplyDelete
  13. My first visit to the blog, and I'm really impressed! Totally agree with your thinking on this topic, and have been a fan of Fast Company for a while without knowing who was behind it. I look forward to future posts.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Interesting post Alan. I loved your presentation to our YPO group in Detroit and will start reading this blog as well. Thank you for your insight on this topic.

    Robert Dickie III
    http://www.linkedin.com/in/robertdickie3

    ReplyDelete
  15. Miracles are good things that happen to lazy people.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Knee-jerk critique?

    Both you and Gates agree that there should be much more funding for energy innovation. And you're both aligned that there should be market incentives in place to spur this.

    Where you're not aligned is in scope. You seem to be looking at a US national policy of how to produce the energy the US needs without importing it. Gates is looking to produce the energy the world needs without carbon. This is what he means when he uses the word "miracle."

    He thinks the miracles will come from funding many entrepreneurs (people like Eddie Sturman) to bring new tech to market.

    You may not like Gates or the word miracle, but you should watch the talk and understand the argument. This is my first time here because of Seth Godin, and this reactionary post doesn't bode well.

    ReplyDelete
  17. This would be an energy miracle: If people actually start caring about the environment and lower their carbon footprint.

    Most people I know either don't care or just don't know what they're doing to the planet.

    ReplyDelete
  18. @Jennifer Lynn Exactely! Eat less meat, avoid industrialized meat, if possible buy local organic meat.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I don't agree. I'm an electrical engineer and I know my rules of tumb and it goes like this. To replace 1 cubic mile of oil (roughly 1 year of world demand) we would need territory size of France covered with wind turbines at a cost of 2.5 CMO and still we're not sure the wind will blow. Or we could place 1600 nuclear power plants at a cost of 1.5 CMO where we control the output. Btw, you know what's the real French paradox? They work 35 hour week and still enjoy almost the same lifestyle as USA.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Great post, but I really think you should actually watch the presentation on TED's website before you criticize him. The idea is that it is easier to come up with an energy miracle (as Bill defines it) than it is to make changes in world governments.

    ReplyDelete
  21. http://www.ahealedplanet.net/energy.htm

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  22. I am sorry to say this, but I do not think that you are credible to say that Bill Gates is WRONG Again and you are right.

    For one he is the richest man in America and you are NOT.

    ReplyDelete
  23. You really ought to watch the presentation.

    Any technology that can produce cheap, clean power anywhere (including the Third World, so we start solving poverty at the same time) while consuming nearly all of our existing nuclear waste sounds pretty damned miraculous to me.

    And getting America to invest in modern mass transit that actually works would be a miracle, too.

    Just because you don't like the guy doesn't mean he's always wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Being rich doesn't make you right! It means your good at making and keeping money.

    Saying someone's ideas are wrong doesn't make your right! It means you have a different view.

    Perhaps if you got together something positive may be achieved rather setting up opposing camps.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Thank you Alan. Finally somebody said it! I agree wholeheartedly.
    This worshipping of Gates at TED was ridiculous and he always was wrong about a lot of things and he didn't suddenly become a saint.
    Our capitalist societies have a long history of shutting down innovation in favour of pushing the traditional, wasteful automobile industry and other wasteful industries. It's a shame.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I'm confused Alan. The $26 billion annual budget and 100,000 contractors and employees of the Department of Energy aren't getting us there?

    ReplyDelete
  27. @Kahil "Our capitalist societies have a long history of shutting down innovation..."

    You're joking right? Capitalist societies have produced more innovation and advancement for mankind than other other societal system, bar none. If our energy issues are to be solved, they must be solved by market forces. The centralized planning, government lead programs that both Alan and Bill Gates seem to put their faith in will ultimately fail.

    ReplyDelete
  28. The gist of this fascinating article is to take baby steps to reach a big goal (at least that's what I'm hearing). We've been saying this at our small business for years.

    There is not one magic bullet that will save the entire energy budget while while making us oil independent while all of us ride our bicycles to work. Baby steps!

    Thank you, Alan, and everyone else who commented here, whether you agree or disagree with Alan's premise that Bill Gates is wrong (he probably has some good ideas - just not a magic bullet).

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hallelujah -- finally someone who speaks with "Sense & Sensibility." And understands that this ISN'T rocket science -- just plain common sense, as Alan points out. If half the "leaders" of this country (that is, the politicians who have regrettably been given authority to perform whatever unbridled stupidity they can think of to keep themselves in office -- oops, I mean, to serve the US citizenry), this country would be far ahead of where it is and a safer, stronger, happier place.

    ReplyDelete
  30. @briang _ yeah, what you said.
    @Jennifer Lynn _ aMEN, sister.
    THE single most feasible, powerful thing humankind can do to 'fix' this is to think about what we pay to eat. The industrial farming complex is ruining our world and fresh water supply. Fact. Invent all of the solutions we can, but how many factory-farmed steaks have we gobbled down this month? Haters on this issue are either ignorant, delusional.

    Nice job and all, Alan- (full disclosure - I'm an iPhone alarm clock Seth reader link wanderer, too - you owe him a beer - he owes you a big fat appology) but regardless of the pragmatism in your common-sense approach, it applies a dismissive, semi-combattive tone that should have died in the 90s. There is room for each and every style of ambition, and vision we can muster - you and Bill, while viewing solutions to the problem(s) differently - you're on the same team and optimism may well be as powerful an antidote as critical thought. One thing is certain, however: spending time trying to justify one well-intending position over anothers' for the sake of hearing ourselves talk (for the mere sake of content) reduces the likelihood of either having as much impact as they could toward positive change.
    All the same: I'll read you again tomorrow and if it's enlightened - I'll share.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Insightful post.

    Just a few observations after reading through the comments, I highly recommend anyone who thinks that Bill Gates et al. (business) can solely change and solve the world's social and environmental problems, read Michael Edward's new book called Small Change, Why business won't save the world. Coming from the sphere of civil society, my experience indicates business alone will not save the world of its climate and energy problems: we as society must, and business can help with their specialized know-how in certain fields. But business should not dictate the solutions, besides... look at the mess created by business to date.

    ReplyDelete
  32. In a world of soundbite media, the words you use need to be clear and unqualified.

    Gates' use of the phrase "an energy miracle" is therefore irresponsible. It is an easy handhold for lazy/overworked journalists to grab on to when working on slipper, high-concept issues like energy policy.

    This is my first visit to Mr. Webber's site, and so far, I am impressed with his willingness to addess the incautious use of language.

    (And seriously, Walter Paul, drilling for oil in America is a solution to the energy problem?!? Hardly. It just puts off the inevitable while ignoring the immediate problems. That is as far from the definition of a "solution" as one can get.)

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hey Alan, I'm a fan... but you've got this one wrong.

    Humanity has never worked through a problem by going backwards. It's always been the bold breakthrough that's seen us through.

    Conservation is great. Conservation is noble... but conservation is a band-aide.

    Making more efficient cars, homes, and everythings is just going to delay the inevitable and in many cases requires huge advancements just to keep up with population growth.

    I'm a native New Yorker and huge fan of pedestrian neighborhoods and mass-transit, but as the Internet expands our ability to live farther apart and not congregate in population centers, mass transit becomes farther from practical. I live in Los Angeles now... and frankly... no subway will ever make this city work.

    We need a bold, new answer. The alternative is a slow demise rather than a quick one.

    Cheap, easy, and scalable cold fusion would be a great place to find ourselves.

    Failing that I'll take whatever "energy miracle" Mr. Gates or anyone else cares to bring to the table.

    ReplyDelete
  34. My first visit here, through Seth Godin's tip, and I come across this article. Come on, why is everyone calling this article so smart and thoughtful?

    1) The author tries to get attention by criticizing Bill Gates -- hitting celebrities to get fame is the oldest trick in the book
    2) He criticizes a talk he admits to not having watched -- oops! RTFA, as the fellows at /. would say. Or, LTFT, in this case!
    3) He proposes that the solution is giving tax credits -- when it really is a matter of physics and pure/brute enomics (energy to create solar panels/windmills vs energy reaped over time x how long they last)
    4) He says higher efficiency implies lower energy use -- when it is not necessarily true at all... (read "The Bottomless Well").
    5) Finally, the author just sounds terribly pretentious/arrogant (Bill Gates is wrong again, the TED crowd is a bunch of impressionable idiots, his personal friend is the secret to the problems of the world...)

    Wow. I hope his other articles are better than that.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Good, simple, and effective solutions are everywhere. Inertia stops us. The miracle will be getting the people of the world (ok... let's just start with the US) to actually prioritize, do, and demand that their representatives prioritize and do those things. WLC.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Nicely put Alan. No miracles, just plain common sense. I moved here from Germany 10 years ago and was amazed how far behind the US was when it came to conserving energy. I'm a big fan of the common sense approach and think it would get us much further than looking for the holy grail.

    Agree with the previous comment when it comes to slamming Bill Gates, I think you went over the top a bit there. ( IMO the title's a bit of a cheap shot). Other than that I love the post and the conclusions you reach.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Oh sure. Rag on Bill Gates, who amassed a fortune and uses it to help others. I don't agree with all his methods either, but come on. He's trying to do amazing things for the world. Why even bother doing anything good in the world, when people like you will hate on you no matter what?

    ReplyDelete
  38. I'm not sure exactly what you're proposing since you ended with the story of Eddie. His experience is a key example of what happens when government is given or money to decide its pet projects. If Eddie's ideas been revolutionary, he cold find the private capital to roll the technology out on a commercial scale.

    Government is not the source of "good" and is riddled with political patronage when it comes to financing.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Since you are not historian, you probably don't realize that Carter's policy was a continuation of a policy started by Nixon. So it has been longer than 30 years. Not all administrations have embraced it, but we've been trying to conserve for decades. And look at all the progress we've made. Not! Tiny increments in savings don't help when our needs continue to grow. That is why we need a miracle. And encouraging wind and solar development would create the miracle we need.

    ReplyDelete
  40. To Alan Webber:

    please watch Bill Gates speech and then, only then, write posts with cheap titles.

    Bill mentioned, that he uses "energy miracles", not to state that its not achievable, its the other meaning - watch video, please:

    http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates.html

    ReplyDelete
  41. I'm with mweb: "miracles" are big steps in the right direction, and much as I'd like to think that Sturman's camless engine is such a miracle, in terms of achieving necessary widespread impact over the right time frame, it's a tiny piece of the pie (for now, anyway).

    What we're looking for is a sea change that can quickly take root in the market; I think that's what Gates is talking about, and we're not there - yet.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Simple steps? Do you realize how silly that is? China is now a BIG energy consumer and India is coming up FAST. That means 2.5 BILLION more people getting electricity and maybe a billion new drivers. Changing a couple switches and replacing a light bulb won't make a dent.

    We are headed for total economic war over energy. China is building 2 new coal fired power plants PER WEEK. That mercury, Sulfur Dioxide laden air comes right over Seattle.

    We do need energy miracles. If this country still had an education system people could do simple math and see the problem ahead.

    Maybe even you can grasp this: There will be a billion more people added to earth in the next 10 years---maybe more. If each one gets ONLY a single 100 watt light bulb, how much electricity has to be produced to meet that meager need?

    Chris Reich
    www.BizPhyZ.com

    ReplyDelete
  43. If this is truely a world wide problem then why are we putting our trust in a group of people who only have a limited influence on world wide issues. I would feel more comforatble myself in taking action like Bill has done than try and influence one of the biggest public bodies in the world into leading the fix of the problem.

    Yes the gov't will play a part but given their primary purpose is to govern domestic issues like controling the amount of carbon usage, shouldn't we give them a break and let the public lead the quest to finding the answers to energy?

    Given Eddie's invention, there are plenty more ways to get funding and to generate buzz around this than just the government. To me this is lazy. A real entreprenuer with real vision of where there product would help would not stop at just trying the government for funding.

    This is a big issue and we all have a lot to say on it. To be honest I have only just got interested in the issue but I can tell straight away it's going to take more than a government grant to fix this one. Even if it where a 100 grants feeding 100 ideas.

    My Thoughts
    Brad

    ReplyDelete
  44. The challenge I have with using the word 'miracle' is that it means we don't have any way of impacting the outcome. A miracle is an effect or extraordinary event in the physical world that surpasses all known human or natural powers – therefore we don't have any way to make it happen, we just have to wait for it.

    But, if we innovate, we can generate solutions and take action. So while there may be overlap between what Alan and Bill are saying, the use of the word miracle is disempowering.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Might you consider that you are wrong too?

    I think you are wrong on multiple things, but I'll pick one.

    I have nothing against energy efficiency. But, I think your assertion that our energy usage will go down with investments in energy efficiency is incorrect.

    For example, our stuff was much less energy efficient 50 years ago. We've made great strides. But we use more per person than we did then. That's because we've figured out how to use energy much more. All the energy that we save on our efficient air conditioners and better insulated buildings, enable bigger homes with more stuff like flat screen TVs, computers and other energy sipping devices.

    ReplyDelete
  46. We have all of the technology we need to get to energy independence; we just need the will.

    Whether we open up new natural gas fields, install miles of solar panels, have huge wind farms, create electric vehicles, etc., all of those are incredibly good ideas to create energy independence and reduce our carbon footprint.

    But we won't be able to get to full-scale use of those technologies until we look at our own energy consumption. We should be looking at installing energy efficient lights and appliances in our homes, weatherizing our homes with insulation and more efficient windows and HVAC, and really concentrating on conserving our electricity and hot water usage. If every home could be equipped with a smart electric meter which shows exactly how much energy we are using at a particular moment and which appliances are using the most energy, I believe that most people would make a concerted effort to reduce their energy usage.

    Plus we can take small steps like walking or biking to the corner store to pick up that extra gallon of milk or loaf of bread instead of burning extra gas just to drive back and forth a few blocks.

    ReplyDelete
  47. I choose the word innovate as well. Why isn't anyone listening to, or talking about Amory Lovins? Why hasn't our government appointed him in a position yet?

    http://www.rmi.org/rmi/

    ReplyDelete
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